“The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities has updated its earthquake forecast and determined there is a 72 percent probability — up from 63 percent — of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the Bay Area before 2043.”
Mark Prado, Mercury News
Earthquake risk is a fundamental fact of life in the Bay Area. Recently, that risk has grown even more pronounced with the discovery that two major faults – the Hayward Fault and the Rodger’s Creek Fault – are likely connected. This discovery raises the likelihood of a major earthquake hitting the Bay Area in the next thirty years from an already high 63% to an even more alarming 72% chance. Additionally, a large portion of the Bay Area is at high risk for liquefaction, or the point at which solid ground turns liquid during a seismic event, amplifying the danger earthquakes represent. The need to retrofit critical assets – from bridges to houses – is beginning to be widely recognized.
- Bay Area earthquake probabilities increase, updated USGS forecast says, Mercury News, January 2017
- The next earthquake to hit the Bay Area could be stronger than we thought, The Verge, October 2016
- The most dangerous fault in America, EARTH Magazine, May 2016
- When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat of the next quake?, The Guardian, March 2014